First Quarter 2026 Toronto Market Analysis
The Toronto resale housing market conditions tightened in March 2026 in comparison to last year. Sales were up year-over-year, while new listings overall were down.
The latest Toronto Real Estate Board Market Watch Report was highlighted by lower selling prices compared to March 2025. It reported 5,039 home sales through TRREB’s MLS System in March 2026 – an increase of 1.7 per cent compared to March 2025. New listings entered into the MLS System amounted to 14,442 – down by 16.7 per cent.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, March 2026 home sales and new listings were up month-over-month compared to February 2026. Sales were up by a slightly greater monthly rate than new listings. The MLS Home Price Index Composite benchmark was down by 7.4 per cent year-over-year in March 2026. The average selling price, at $1,017,796, was down by 6.7 per cent compared to March 2025. On a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis selling prices remained relatively flat, with the MLS HPI Composite edging down and the average selling price edging up compared to February 2026.
TRREB CEO John DiMichele had this to say about the YTD Toronto market thus far:
“The GTA housing supply pipeline is in danger of running dry in the medium-to-long term. The federal and provincial governments announcements on HST and development charge relief were important affordability policy initiatives designed to spur new home sales and construction. It will be important to ensure that the right types of homes are built, namely ‘missing middle’ home types bridging the gap between condos and traditional single-family homes. This is contemplated in the recent Ontario Building Homes and Improving Transportation Infrastructure Act,”
TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld further stated:
“It’s encouraging to see an uptick in March home sales compared to last month and last year. This suggests that an increasing number of GTA households are looking to take advantage of improved affordability as we move into the spring market. Positive news on trade and geopolitical issues would help improve consumer confidence and home sales in the months ahead. Buyers continued to benefit from substantial negotiating power on price across major market segments in the last month. This explains why benchmark and average selling prices were down year-over-year. However, if market conditions continue to tighten, as they did in March, selling prices could start levelling off as we move through the remainder of 2026.”
This is very much a “wait and see” prognosis. Essentially you cannot buy what is not for sale. Inventory levels will have to start nosing upwards soon, and it seems like in these past few days they have. If the Spring market doesn’t catch some of the fervour that we have seen in the past, we may be in store for a long year.
