Monthly Newsletter January 2007

Happy New Year everybody! I hope that you all had a wonderful holiday break and wish you and your family very safe and prosperous times for the months ahead. This is the time of year that many of us resolve to work harder, eat better, exercise more, etc. May all of your goals, hopes and aspirations come to pass this year. If you work as hard as you can, I’m sure you’ll be rewarded. Remember the old saying that if you move your legs, God will give you speed.

Last month I talked about how there may be a slow down coming in the Toronto residential resale market. This was one of my most popular writings as many you responded to my ideas. Some agreed, others disagreed but it stimulated a lot of discussion. To recap, here’s what happened in December. By the end of the first week, everything had pretty much come to a grinding halt. This lead to a lot of speculation that the market was finally turning around. I believe that many agents just happened to shut down a little earlier than normal. By December 11th most of us were already looking ahead to January. So now it’s the beginning of January, where do we stand? As of this early date in January, the market is still dormant. So either the market will stay calm or more than likely it’s just too early to tell. Rather than trying to guess, I’ll be able to give you a much more concrete picture of where the income property market is going in about two weeks. I’d reckon that by Friday the 15th, we’ll have a solid very indication as to whether we’re in for more of the same or know if the market is going to be more favourable to buyers.

In order to prep you for these prognostications that will come next month, Shannon and I have prepared a synopsis of income property activity in the key Central districts for last year – 2006. We looked at all sales of all properties with three or more kitchens (which I recognize will eliminate the sale of duplexes but I don’t want to count the hundreds of homes with basement apartments). If you are in the income property business, this chart is a handy snapshot of some poignant data.

C01 C02 C03 C04 C09 C10 C11
Counts
Districts C01 C02 C03 C04 C09 C10 C11
Total Sold 95 72 51 20 6 11 1
Mean (Average)
List Price 496316 566200 467948 571510 1026833 661982 649900
Original Price 496457 572976 476940 577660 1032000 622363 649900
Sold Price 496211 558849 451715 549680 927667 654702 630000
% List 99.75 98.57 96.8 96.51 92.67 98 97
Taxes 3418 4081 3360 4072 6405 4884 4951
Bedrooms 4.5 4.2 4.1 4 4.7 4.5 6
Washrooms 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.3 3.8 3
Days On Market 28 34 38 30 26 39 49
Median
List Price 469000 449450 379900 499000 822000 639900 649900
Original Price 469900 449450 389000 499000 822000 649000 649900
Sold Price 450000 455000 365000 475000 787500 585000 630000
% List 98 98 96 96.5 92.5 99 97
Taxes 3149 3237 2750 3490 7000 4760 4951
Bedrooms 4 4 4 4 4 4 6
Washrooms 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Days On Market 17 22.5 22 31.5 18.5 34 49
Mode
List Price 399900 399000 n/a 499000 n/a n/a 649900
Original Price n/a 399000 399900 499000 n/a n/a 949900
Sold Price n/a 455000 360000 n/a n/a 570000 630000
% List 98 97 n/a n/a n/a 99 97
Taxes n/a n/a n/a 3327.75 n/a n/a 4950.82
Bedrooms 4 4 4 4 4 4 6
Washrooms 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Days On Market n/a n/a 20 10 n/a n/a 49
Low
List Price 269000 289000 239000 344900 598000 409000 649900
Original Price 469 289000 239000 344900 629000 54990 949900
Sold Price 27500 270000 209000 318000 580000 408000 630000
% List 86 89 85 91 84 88 97
Taxes 1196.9 2002.37 1050 2402 4461.18 2965 4950.82
Bedrooms 2 2 2 2 4 2 6
Washrooms 2 2 2 2 3 3 3
Days On Market 1 1 2 4 5 8 49
High
List Price 1268000 2148000 1495000 1179000 2295000 1150000 649900
Original Price 1268000 2148000 1495000 1179000 2295000 1150000 949900
Sold Price 1250000 2270000 1400000 1100000 1925000 1265225 630000
% List 125 118 120 100 99 110 97
Taxes 8300 15777.348462.85 8449.83 7704.32 7580.37 4950.82
Bedrooms 9 8 8 6 7 6 6
Washrooms 10 7 6 6 4 7 3
Days On Market 177 143 202 71 67 95 49
Type
Att/Row/Twnhouse28 3 1 0 0 0 0
Detached 17 30 38 11 2 3 0
Semi-Detached 48 36 7 1 1 3 0
Duplex 0 2 3 1 2 2 1
Triplex 2 0 1 7 1 3 0
Multiplex 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
Storeys
2 1/2 – Storey 24 12 1 3 2 1 0
2 – Storey 41 30 45 13 2 7 1
3 – Storey 29 29 3 0 2 3 0
Other 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bungalow 0 1 0 4 0 0 0
1 1/2 Storey 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Backsplit 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 0

One last point that has little to do with real estate specifically but should be of prime concern to al of us. Over the holidays I watched the Al Gore documentary on Global Warming (it’s called “An Inconvenient Truth” and should be available at your local Blockbuster). If you haven’t done so, please give it a watch. I don’t normally make a fuss about these kinds of things, but the facts as they are presented are truly startling. I don’t want to sound like a hypocrite because I drive my clients around in an S.U.V., but I figure that if I help spread the word about this film, then more people can get switched on to the very real problems that we are facing today. Check it out.

Next month, I’ll comment on how the market has started off for 2007 and be able to give you a much clearer picture of what to expect for the months ahead. Back to work everybody!

P.A.

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